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<div class="moz-cite-prefix">Steve,<br>
<br>
At some point in this exercise we must assign probabilities for
contingencies, as well as for their hypothetical consequences.<br>
<br>
Would you be so kind as to convey the Business Constituency's
assigned probability for:<br>
<br>
1. termination of the AoC between the USG and the incumbent
contractor, by the USG, while leaving the IANA Functions contract
otherwise unchanged?<br>
<br>
2. termination of the AoC between the USG and the Corporation, by
the Corporation, while retaining the IANA Functions contract
otherwise unchanged?<br>
<br>
Sincerely,<br>
<br>
Eric Brunner-Williams<br>
Eugene, Oregon<br>
<br>
On 1/11/15 12:27 PM, Steve DelBianco wrote:<br>
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Eric — I think we have a fundamental disconnect on the meaning
and purpose of stress tests. You keep asking about past
events, or about why we believe a scenario WOULD happen.</div>
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<br>
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<div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Calibri,
sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">
But the purpose of scenarios/stress tests is to design
plausible situations that help us test accountability
mechanisms we have now or are proposing to create. Stress
tests are
<u>not</u> predictive. We do <u>not</u> need to justify a
scenario, or show why it is likely to happen. </div>
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sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">
<br>
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<div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Calibri,
sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">
Nor do we want to be preoccupied with past events. Indeed,
the benefit of doing future scenarios is that we avoid
fighting over our differing interpretations of past events.</div>
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sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">
<br>
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<div><font face="Calibri,sans-serif">As a software guy, you need
more than high-level principles to develop an application.
Programming requires anticipating scenarios where users
don't follow the expected routine. For non-programmers,
here's an analogy: It's a good principle to practice safe
driving in winter weather. It's a scenario to prepare for
and respond to a specific situation, such as having your car
spin sideways on a snow-covered road.</font></div>
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<div>Steve</div>
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<span style="font-weight:bold">From: </span>Eric
Brunner-Williams <<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="mailto:ebw@abenaki.wabanaki.net">ebw@abenaki.wabanaki.net</a>><br>
<span style="font-weight:bold">Date: </span>Sunday, January
11, 2015 at 3:13 PM<br>
<span style="font-weight:bold">To: </span>Steve DelBianco
<<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="mailto:sdelbianco@netchoice.org">sdelbianco@netchoice.org</a>>,
Mathieu Weill <<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="mailto:mathieu.weill@afnic.fr">mathieu.weill@afnic.fr</a>>,
Thomas Rickert <<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="mailto:rickert@anwaelte.de">rickert@anwaelte.de</a>>,
"\"<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="mailto:leonfelipe@sanchez.mx">leonfelipe@sanchez.mx</a>
>> León Felipe Sánchez Ambía\"" <<a
moz-do-not-send="true" href="mailto:leonfelipe@sanchez.mx">leonfelipe@sanchez.mx</a>><br>
<span style="font-weight:bold">Cc: </span>"<a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="mailto:ccwg-accountability4@icann.org">ccwg-accountability4@icann.org</a>"
<<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="mailto:ccwg-accountability4@icann.org">ccwg-accountability4@icann.org</a>><br>
<span style="font-weight:bold">Subject: </span>Business
Constituency Stress Test #1<br>
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<div bgcolor="#FFFFFF" text="#000000"><font
face="Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif">Steve,<br>
<br>
Members of the Business Constituency are aware that on
November 10, 2011, the Department of Commerce issued a
Request for Proposal (RFP) SA1301-12-RP-IANA for a new
IANA functions contract with a deadline of December 19,
2011.
<br>
<br>
Members of the Business Constituency are also aware that
the government reserved the right to cancel any
solicitation that did not meet the requirements
_requested_by_the_global_community_ (emphasis added).<br>
<br>
Members of the Business Constituency are also aware that
the government canceled this RFP because no proposals were
received that met the requirements requested.<br>
<br>
Members of the Business Constituency are also aware that
the only proposal received by the government for that RFP
was the proposal submitted by the Corporation.<br>
<br>
Could you clarify why the Business Constituency believes
that the government might "choose to terminate the
Affirmation of Commitments", apparently an expression of
the requirements requested by the global community?<br>
<br>
Similarly, you clarify why the Business Constituency
believes that the Corporation might "choose to terminate
the Affirmation of Commitments", again, apparently an
expression of the requirements requested by the global
community?<br>
<br>
Thanks in advance for the clarifications.<br>
<br>
Eric Brunner-Williams<br>
Eugene, Oregon<br>
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