[tz] Bulletin C number 58

[Brian Inglis]

On 2019-07-04 17:15, Chris Woodbury via tz wrote:
> Christian Bizouard has struck again (and exactly a week earlier than I was expecting).

IERS have been getting quicker at announcing no change during the first week of
July, but January and adding leap seconds have been later and less consistent.

> No new leap-second.  I predict (after a careful perusal of Bulletin A) that we will see
> one in July 2020.  i.e.: 3802550400 38 # 1 Jul 2020

The Bulletin A dUT1 prediction for 2020 July is only -0.39s and the rate about
-0.01s/month, so if the rate does not increase much, dUT1 would only be about
-0.45s in 2020 Dec, and -0.51s in 2021 July.
That would suggest the next leap is more likely 3834086400 38 # 1 Jul 2021 MJD
59396 Unix @1625097600.

If one happens in 2020, that would follow recent trends of 2.5-3.5 years between
leaps, but if delayed until 2021, 2017 to 2021 would be the next largest gap
after that from 1999 to 2006.

-- 
Take care. Thanks, Brian Inglis, Calgary, Alberta, Canada

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