[tz] Negative leap seconds in mainstream media

[Tim Parenti]

The Telegraph appears to have had one of the earliest posts on this topic
this time around…
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/04/earth-spinning-faster-now-time-past-half-century/

…and, from there, it was quickly picked up by The New York Post:
https://nypost.com/2021/01/05/atomic-clock-scientists-suggest-subtracting-a-second-from-minute/

It's amazing how quickly "fastest in 50 years" becomes "faster than maybe
ever" in popular media.  ;)

On 2020-01-01, DUT1 (per the IERS Rapid Service in Bulletins A)
was −0.177278, while a year later on 2021-01-01 it was nearly the same at
−0.175360.  This is a bit unexpected: In January 2020, predictions for
January 2021 were much closer to −0.30, with only a slight regression
between −0.24 to −0.21 along the way.  In fact, we got near −0.26 in June
2020 before regressing all the way back toward −0.17 in October 2020.

The projections for the year ahead indicate the accumulated difference is
indeed expected to regress again from approximately −0.19 in April/May 2021
to around −0.10 in September 2021, before turning back around.

Still, we've got a ways to go before DUT1 would return to positive
territory — and even longer before it would start to threaten the need for
a negative leap second — so while it's definitely a possibility to
seriously keep in mind, I'm not too, too worried *just* yet.

--
Tim Parenti


On Tue, 12 Jan 2021 at 10:10, Jonathan Leffler <jonathan.leffler at gmail.com>
wrote:

> There were a number of articles about a week ago with some details about
> the amount by which the earth is spinning faster.
>
> One such is:
> https://www.space.com/earth-spinning-faster-negative-leap-second.html
>
> It says, in part:
>
> The year 2020 was already faster than usual, astronomically speaking (cue
>> sighs of relief). According to Time and Date, Earth broke the previous
>> record for shortest astronomical day, set in 2005, 28 times. That year's
>> shortest day, July 5, saw Earth complete a rotation 1.0516 milliseconds
>> faster than 86,400 seconds. The shortest day in 2020 was July 19, when the
>> planet completed one spin 1.4602 milliseconds faster than 86,400 seconds.
>
>
> That appears to be a report from Live Science — I've not tracked down the
> original.
>
>
> On Tue, Jan 12, 2021 at 7:57 AM Koning, Paul <Paul.Koning at dell.com> wrote:
>
>>
>>
>> > On Jan 12, 2021, at 9:48 AM, Steve Allen <sla at ucolick.org> wrote:
>> >
>> >
>> > [EXTERNAL EMAIL]
>> >
>> > On Tue 2021-01-12T14:34:52+0000 Koning, Paul hath writ:
>> >> Is there any reason to believe that story is more than fiction?
>> >
>> >> "Why Scientists Want to Shorten the Minute to 59 Seconds"
>> >>
>> >>
>> https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/a35165130/leap-second-shorten-minute-earth-rotation/
>> >
>> > No, but it is a common fiction that has arisen because the content of
>> > the negotiations that led to the inception of leap seconds was not
>> > explained.
>> >
>> > At the time of inception no scientist believed that leap seconds were
>> > the best way to regulate time.  The closest that they could come at
>> > IAU was to assert that leap seconds were the "optimum solution" while
>> > redacting all of the arguments and discussion indicating that the
>> > problem that needed a solution was legal and political, not technical.
>> >
>> > --
>> > Steve Allen                    <sla at ucolick.org>              WGS-84
>> (GPS)
>> > UCO/Lick Observatory--ISB 260  Natural Sciences II, Room 165  Lat
>> +36.99855
>> > 1156 High Street               Voice: +1 831 459 3046         Lng
>> -122.06015
>> > Santa Cruz, CA 95064           https://www.ucolick.org/~sla/  Hgt +250
>> m
>>
>> Yes.  The other point, though, is that leap seconds lengthen the day.  In
>> theory we can have omitted seconds, in practice we have not had those.  The
>> article speaks of the days getting shorter.  Is there any data that
>> supports this assertion?
>>
>>         paul
>>
>>
>
> --
> Jonathan Leffler <jonathan.leffler at gmail.com>  #include <disclaimer.h>
> Guardian of DBD::Informix - v2018.1031 - http://dbi.perl.org
> "Blessed are we who can laugh at ourselves, for we shall never cease to be
> amused."
>
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